Friday Market Recap
Weekly Assessment of Global Real Estate Trends
ASIA In China: Most major product groups grew, except for mobile handsets and textiles, further solidifying China’s robust recovery from COVID. In Japan: The government raised its alert for the strain on the medical system to the highest of four levels and experts warned of serious consequences if the current trends did not reverse course soon. REIT Focus: Keppel
ASIA In China: The move further strains the economic relationship between both countries. In addition, the outlook of the Biden administration quickly reestablishing the status quo before the Trump administration took over, was dealt a blow this week when the New York Times reported that Biden would not remove the 25% tariffs on goods immediately. US President Elect Biden
ASIA In China: This comes as Australian coal imports are still being blocked and the number of coal ships waiting on China’s coast has grown to over 80 ships. In Japan: Gov. Kuroda reiterated the BOJ’s view that Japan’s economy is on track for a moderate recovery The restrictions in Tokyo are aimed at nightlife businesses and run through
Featured Global Market Reports
Browse finance headlines from around the globe we’re keeping an eye on
We conducted three days of due diligence on the nascent REIT industry in Mexico (two days in Mexico City and one in Monterrey), our itinerary filled with back-to-back meeting with management teams of five of the seven exiting Mexican REITs, called Fideicomisos de Infrastructura y Bienes Raices or Fibras for short. Our discoveries: Mexico is experiencing a manufacturing renaissance.
A Greek Tragedy… or is it a Comedy? Clearly, it is a little of both. As the new Greek government fails to form a coalition, the entire “progress” of the Troika’s (IMF/ECB/EC – and Germany) negotiations reverts back to uncertainty and talk of a Greek exit from the Euro. It is comical that Greece can hold the entire Eurozone
Our European analyst recently attended the BAML UK Real Estate conference in London. One of the panel discussions involved five CEOs of prominent UK REITs talking about the state of the London real estate market. The panelists were John Burns (DerwentLondon), Chris Grigg (BritishLand), David Atkins (Hammerson), David Fischel (Capital Shopping Centers), and now retired Francis Salway (Land Securities).
Domestic & Capital Market Insights
What’s happening at home, outlooks & reviews
As we await recounts in some of the close battle ground states and the inevitable lawsuits to follow (did anyone expect this annus horribilis to end differently?), we wanted to take a break from constantly refreshing websites for updated vote counts to offer quick thoughts on the election and its impact on REITs for the months ahead. While the
The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a long-debated economic theory first introduced in nascent terms in the early 1900s, and advanced starting in the 1950s, which essentially suggests “security prices fully reflect all available information.” Although variations exist, the natural conclusion is that stock price movements are unpredictable; therefore “you cannot beat the market” and active portfolio management is a
Since August 27, when Michael Bauer and Thomas Mertens published their FRBSF Economic Letter titled Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions, the ten-year-three-month spread has gone from “nearly 1 percentage point away from an inversion” to low of 15 bps on January 3, 2019. Put another way, investors were willing to lend money for ten years for
The US economy is still expanding albeit at a slower rate. The third estimate of Third Quarter GDP growth came in at 3.4%, compared to 2.8% for Third Quarter 2017, and the latest estimate for Fourth Quarter GDP growth from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is 2.8%. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, changes in total nonfarm